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Navigate Uncertainty

Volatile Market Forecaster

Multi-scenario forecasts with confidence bands in under 1 hour

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How to Upload a Claude Skill

 

Features List

6

Pre-Built Shock Types

4

Scenario Types

<1 Hour

vs. 3-10 Day Cycles

Why Finance Leaders Use This Skill

Board-Ready in Under 1 Hour

Traditional reforecast cycles run 3 to 10 days. By then, the situation has moved. This skill generates Base, Stress, and Shock scenarios with probability-weighted expected cases and executive narrative in under an hour — from the moment a tariff is announced, a currency spikes, or a supply chain breaks. Your board gets scenarios on the day the shock hits, not a week later.

Confidence Bands, Not Point Guesses

A revenue forecast of $47.5M implies precision that doesn't exist. This skill calculates P10, P25, P50, P75, and P90 estimates for every key metric across every forecast period — adjusting for how uncertainty grows with the horizon and varies by line item type. You stop presenting a single number and start showing the range of outcomes the board actually needs to govern.

Six Shock Types Pre-Calibrated

Demand collapse, FX spike, cost inflation, supply chain disruption, COVID-type multi-factor events, and interest rate shock — each with historical analogs, pre-set magnitude ranges, and four recovery curve shapes (V, U, L, W). Select a shock, adjust parameters to your situation, and the skill applies it to your P&L with period-by-period impact and recovery modelling. No starting from scratch on every crisis.

Know Why You Missed, Not Just By How Much

When actuals come in below forecast, most teams say 'market conditions were difficult.' This skill decomposes the variance into Volume Effect, Price Effect, Mix Shift, Timing, External Shock, and Residual — with a target that residual stays below 10% of total error. You walk into the next board meeting with an attribution table, not an apology.

12-Tab Excel Plus Narrative

Every analysis produces a structured Excel workbook with tabs for Executive Summary, Assumptions, all four scenario P&Ls, Confidence Bands, Shock Simulation with recovery, Sensitivity tornado chart data, Error Attribution, Scenario Comparison, and a Narrative tab with board-ready commentary. You get the numbers and the story that goes with them in the same output.

What You Get

  • Claude Custom Skill (.skill file)

    The core skill file for uploading to Claude. Contains the full Volatile Market Forecaster logic: 6-step workflow, shock library with 6 pre-calibrated shock types, confidence interval calculations, error attribution framework, Excel output structure with formatting standards, and executive narrative template.

  • Shock Library (6 types + cascading)

    Pre-calibrated shock scenarios with historical analogs and parameter ranges: Demand Collapse (mild/moderate/severe/structural), FX/Currency Shock, Cost Inflation, Supply Chain Disruption, COVID-Type Pandemic, Interest Rate Shock, and Combined/Cascading scenarios. Each includes magnitude, onset period, trough period, recovery periods, recovery shape, and probability weight.

  • 4-Scenario Forecasting Engine

    Base Case (trend continuation), Stress Case (mild adverse at -10% to -15% on key drivers), Shock Case (full impact with selected recovery curve), and Probability-Weighted Expected Case. Default probability weights: Base 50%, Stress 30%, Shock 20%. Weights are adjustable based on current market conditions.

  • P10/P25/P50/P75/P90 Confidence Bands

    Statistical confidence intervals for every key metric across every forecast period. Calculated using historical volatility from your data, adjusted for forecast horizon (uncertainty grows with time), and calibrated by line item type: Revenue at 1.0x volatility, Variable Costs at 0.8x, Fixed Costs at 0.3x, Discretionary at 1.2x.

  • Forecast Error Attribution Framework

    When actuals arrive, decompose variance into six components: Volume Effect (actual vs. forecast units at forecast price), Price Effect (price change at actual units), Mix Shift (segment weighting changes), Timing Effect (revenue/cost timing differences), External Shock Effect (identifiable shock impact), and Model Error Residual. Target: residual below 10% of total error.

  • 12-Tab Excel Workbook Structure

    Output structure with tabs for: Executive Summary, Assumptions, Base Case P&L, Stress Case P&L, Shock Case P&L, Expected Case P&L, Confidence Bands (P10-P90), Shock Simulation (period-by-period impact and recovery), Sensitivity/Tornado chart data, Error Attribution, Scenario Comparison (side-by-side), and Narrative.y

  • Executive Narrative Template

    Board-ready commentary template covering Situation Assessment (current conditions, identified shocks, why traditional forecast may be unreliable), Scenario Summary table, Critical Uncertainties, and Recommended Actions with decision timing. Generated alongside the numbers so the story and the data are in sync.

  • SEA Manufacturing Sample Case

    A complete worked example showing a 25% US tariff shock on a Southeast Asian manufacturer with 58% of revenue from US exports. Shows EBITDA impact range from -40.6% to -56.7% across scenarios, full confidence band tables, critical uncertainty analysis, and complete executive narrative. Demonstrates exactly what a finished analysis looks like.

  • Driver Sensitivity Summary

    Before scenario generation, the skill identifies and ranks the top 5 forecast drivers by EBITDA impact. For each driver: 1% change translates to X% EBITDA impact. Focuses shock analysis and scenario assumptions on the factors that actually move your numbers, not every line item equally.

  • Recovery Curve Mathematics

    Four recovery shapes with mathematical definitions: V-shaped (sharp decline, sharp recovery), U-shaped (sharp decline, flat bottom, gradual recovery), L-shaped (sharp decline, no recovery, new normal), and W-shaped (double-dip pattern). Each shock scenario assigns a recovery shape and recovery period count to model the full forward trajectory.

 When to Use This Skill

A tariff or trade policy shock just hit

A 25% tariff is announced. Your finance team has 48 hours before the board calls. Upload your P&L, select the Demand Collapse and Cost Inflation shock scenarios, adjust parameters for your revenue exposure and cost pass-through assumptions, and generate four probability-weighted scenarios with confidence bands and a full executive narrative — before the board meeting.

FX rates moved materially against your position

A currency spike is eroding your margins in real time. Select the FX/Currency Shock from the library, input your revenue and cost exposure by currency, and model V, U, and L-shaped recovery paths. The Confidence Bands tab shows the P10 through P90 range for EBITDA across your forecast horizon. You go from 'rates moved' to 'here is the financial impact range' in under an hour.

Running a quarterly reforecast under uncertainty

Your standard reforecast process takes a week and produces a single point estimate. Use this skill to run Base, Stress, and Shock scenarios in parallel with probability-weighted expected case — giving the board a range of outcomes with stated probabilities instead of false precision. Quarterly reforecasts become faster and more credible at the same time.

Actuals came in below forecast — explaining the miss

Revenue missed by $5.2M. Before the board review, decompose the variance using the Error Attribution framework: Volume Effect, Price Effect, Mix Shift, Timing, External Shock. If identifiable market conditions drove the miss, quantify them separately from controllable factors. Walk into the review with an attribution table, a root cause hypothesis, and adjusted forward assumptions.

Stress-testing the annual budget before submission

Your team has built the annual budget on base-case assumptions. Before it goes to the board, stress-test it against the three most likely adverse scenarios for your business using the shock library. Show the board not just what you expect, but what happens under each adverse path — and what levers you have to respond. Budget conversations shift from plan defence to strategic preparedness.

Six Pre-Calibrated Shock Scenarios

Shock Type Typical Trigger Magnitude Range Duration Recovery Shapes
Demand Collapse Recession, pandemic, market shift, structural disruption -20% to -50% revenue volume 2–6 quarters V, U, L, W
FX / Currency Spike Currency crisis, central bank policy change, sanctions ±15% to ±30% rate movement 1–4 quarters V, U
Cost Inflation Commodity spike, tariffs, energy prices, logistics costs +10% to +40% COGS increase 2–8 quarters U, L
Supply Chain Disruption Logistics breakdown, supplier failure, port congestion +15% lead time, -10% capacity 1–4 quarters V, U
COVID-Type Pandemic Pandemic, major simultaneous multi-factor disruption Multi-factor simultaneous impact 4–12 quarters U, L, W
Interest Rate Shock Central bank rate action, credit market tightening +200 to +400 bps sustained increase Sustained L, U

Common Questions

When the Market Moves, Your Forecast Needs to Move Faster.

Multi-scenario forecasting with confidence bands in under 1 hour. Six pre-built shock types. Board-ready output. Updated for 2026.

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